SIDC ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC ursigram
SIDC code tot

Latest issue 

:Issued: 2024 May 10 1259 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/tot
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40510
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 10 May 2024, 1259UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : X-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Major (ISES: Severe) magstorm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 May 2024  10CM FLUX: 235 / AP: 051
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 May 2024  10CM FLUX: 236 / AP: 119
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 May 2024  10CM FLUX: 237 / AP: 043

Solar Active Regions and flaring: The solar flaring activity was at high
levels with several M-class flares and two X-class flares during the last
24 hours. The strongest reported flare was GOES X4.0 flare which peaked at
06:54 UTC on May 10, produced by NOAA Active Region (AR) 3664. During the
flare, source region (AR 3664) of the flare had beta-gamma-delta
configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. The solar flaring
activity is expected to be at high to very high levels over the next 24
hours possibly with M-class flares and chance for X-class flare.

Coronal mass ejections: A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was
observed on SOHO/LASCO-C2 images around 07:12 UTC on May 10. This CME is
associated with a X4.0 flare, which peaked at 06:54 UTC, produced by NOAA
AR 3664. Associated type II and type IV radio emissions were detected at
06:46 UTC and 06:51 UTC, respectively. This CME has a projected speed of
about 694 km/s (as measured by the Cactus tool). The corresponding ICME is
expected to impact the Earth on May 12.

Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours, interplanetary magnetic field was
slightly disturbed. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -6 and 4
nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 0 nT to 7 nT. The solar
wind speed ranged from 450 km/s to 370 km/s. Enhanced solar wind parameters
associated with interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICME) arrival are
expected as multiple CMEs associated with flaring activity from NOAA AR
3664, observed on May 08-09, possibly impact Earth late on May 10 or May
11.

Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to
unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 3). In the next 24 hours,
moderate to severe storm conditions (K 6 to 8) are expected as multiple
coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with flaring activity from NOAA AR
3664, observed on May 08-09, possibly impact Earth late on May 10 or May
11.

Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux started to
increase around 11:00 UTC on May 09, associated with coronal mass ejections
and flaring activities from NOAA AR 3664. It is increasing but still
remains below the 10 pfu threshold level. In the next 24 hours, it may
possibly cross the threshold level.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured
by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level over the past 24
hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron
fluence is presently at normal level and is expected to remain so for the
next 24 hours.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 166, BASED ON 24 STATIONS.
99999

SOLAR INDICES FOR 09 May 2024
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 233
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 017
AK WINGST              : 009
ESTIMATED AP           : 008
ESTIMATED ISN          : 171, BASED ON 22 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
09  1152  1156 1202 ////// M3.1          86/3664      II/3 
09  1205  1212 1220 ////// M2.9          86/3664      
09  1316  1323 1329 ////// M3.7 N        86/3664      
09  1723  1744 1800 S14W28 X1.1 2B       86/3664      IV/2 
09  2115  2121 2125 N28W88 M1.0 SF       84/3663      
09  2208  2215 2224 ////// M1.0          ///////      
09  2224  2241 2247 ////// M2.6          ///////      
09  2304  2308 2313 S17W43 M1.2 SF       86/3664      CTM/1 
09  2344  2351 2355 ////// M1.5          86/3664      VI/2 
10  0010  0013 0022 ////// M1.3          90/3664      
10  0315  0329 0340 ////// M1.4          ///////      
10  0614  0624 0627 ////// M1.3          ///////      III/2II/2 
10  0627  0654 0706 ////// X3.9          ///////      III/2II/3IV/2 
END

UMAGF 30503 40510 1004/ 09065 1/017 22322 32232
UMAGF 31523 40510 0000/ 09006 1/009 21223 32133
BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.
Besides the ISES codes like UMAGF, UCOSE and USSPS,
this message contains a forecast on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.
OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.